FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026

Georgia 0–0 UkraineMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 28 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Ukraine or draw at 77%. Bawler had Georgia at 23%, the draw at 26% and Ukraine at 51%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Georgia win
23%
Draw
26%
Result
Ukraine win
51%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.7
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.2
From the match itself

The match produced 2.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Ukraine or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 77% forecast confidence, underpinned by Ukraine's 0.48 xG advantage and 48% win probability suggesting attacking intent that Georgia's 1.15 expected output cannot match."

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