FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Getafe 1–1 DeportivoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Getafe or draw at 76%. Bawler had Getafe at 46%, the draw at 29% and Deportivo at 24%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
46%
Draw
29%
Result
Deportivo win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 0.9
Total 2.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.3 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 66%
Landed
Medium confidence
Getafe or draw
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 20%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 66% call, grounded in Getafe's 0.45 xG advantage and 46% win probability that suggests attacking intent will overcome Deportivo's defensive setup."