FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Gibraltar 0–0 AndorraMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Gibraltar or draw at 70%. Bawler had Gibraltar at 42%, the draw at 28% and Andorra at 30%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Gibraltar win
42%
Draw
28%
Result
Andorra win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 0.7
From the match itself

The match produced 2.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals ranks as the high-confidence forecast at 76% because Gibraltar's 1.58 xG combined with Andorra's 1.17 creates a 0.41 gap that favors an open attacking contest."

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