FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 23 September 2026

Gibraltar 0–0 Sao Tome and PrincipeMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 23 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Gibraltar or draw at 75%. Bawler had Gibraltar at 51%, the draw at 24% and Sao Tome and Principe at 25%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Gibraltar win
51%
Draw
24%
Result
Sao Tome and Principe win
25%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 1.3
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.1 against our forecast)

The match produced 3.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Medium confidence
Gibraltar to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call, backed by Gibraltar's 1.88 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 3.15 that suggests multiple scoring chances for both sides."

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