FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Goztepe 2–2 Caykur RizesporMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Goztepe or draw at 75%. Bawler had Goztepe at 50%, the draw at 24% and Caykur Rizespor at 25%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Goztepe win
50%
Draw
24%
Result
Caykur Rizespor win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Goztepe to win
Pre-match: 50%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals ranks as the high-confidence forecast at 79%, driven by Goztepe's 1.75 expected goals—a 0.57 xG advantage that suggests attacking intent will dominate this encounter."