FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Goztepe 0–1 GenclerbirligiMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Goztepe or draw at 82%. Bawler had Goztepe at 59%, the draw at 23% and Genclerbirligi at 18%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Goztepe win
59%
Draw
23%
Genclerbirligi win
18%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Goztepe or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.