FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Heart of Midlothian 2–2 Rapid ViennaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Heart of Midlothian or draw at 67%. Bawler had Heart of Midlothian at 40%, the draw at 27% and Rapid Vienna at 33%. The match finished 2–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Heart of Midlothian win
40%
Draw
27%
Result
Rapid Vienna win
33%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.3
From the match itself

The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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