FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Hull City 2–0 Manchester UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester United to win at 73%. Bawler had Hull City at 10%, the draw at 17% and Manchester United at 73%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hull City win
10%
Result
Draw
17%
Manchester United win
73%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 2.5
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Manchester United or draw
Pre-match: 90%
Missed
Outside shot
Hull City or draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.