FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Iberia 1999 1–2 Jagiellonia BialystokMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Iberia 1999 or draw at 70%. Bawler had Iberia 1999 at 44%, the draw at 26% and Jagiellonia Bialystok at 30%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Iberia 1999 win
44%
Draw
26%
Jagiellonia Bialystok win
30%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Iberia 1999's 0.31 xG advantage and 44% win probability underpin a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 78%, as both sides are expected to threaten at a combined 2.88 xG."