FT · World: International Friendly · Friday, 25 September 2026

India 1–1 PanamaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 25 September 2026

India
1–1
Draw
Panama

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Panama or draw at 82%. Bawler had India at 18%, the draw at 23% and Panama at 59%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

India win
18%
Draw
23%
Result
Panama win
59%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.0 – 1.9
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)

The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Panama or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Panama's attacking edge—a 0.80 xG advantage and 55% win probability—makes Panama or draw the high-confidence call in this friendly."

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