FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Inter Miami CF 2–2 Nashville SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Inter Miami CF or draw at 73%. Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 51%, the draw at 23% and Nashville SC at 27%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Inter Miami CF win
51%
Draw
23%
Result
Nashville SC win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.5
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Medium confidence
Inter Miami CF to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 86% call, built on Inter Miami's 2.04 xG advantage and Messi's role orchestrating 35% of their shot quality against Nashville's 1.46 xG output."