FT · England: Premier League · Friday, 04 September 2026
Ipswich Town 0–2 LiverpoolMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Liverpool or draw at 78%. Bawler had Ipswich Town at 22%, the draw at 24% and Liverpool at 54%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ipswich Town win
22%
Draw
24%
Liverpool win
54%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.9
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Liverpool to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Liverpool's Champions League push gives them sharper attacking intent than hosts operating without European stakes, and the 0.80 xG gap underpins a high-confidence forecast of Over 1.5 Goals at 82%."