FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Israel 0–3 Republic of IrelandMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Israel
0–3
Republic of Ireland win
Republic of Ireland

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Republic of Ireland or draw at 78%. Bawler had Israel at 22%, the draw at 24% and Republic of Ireland at 55%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Israel win
22%
Draw
24%
Republic of Ireland win
55%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.9
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 1.6
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Republic of Ireland to win
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast here, with Ireland's 0.66 xG advantage and 52% win probability signaling sustained attacking pressure that Israel's 1.23 expected output cannot fully contain."

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