FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Friday, 04 September 2026
Istanbul Basaksehir 2–3 GalatasarayMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Galatasaray or draw at 63%. Bawler had Istanbul Basaksehir at 37%, the draw at 25% and Galatasaray at 38%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Istanbul Basaksehir win
37%
Draw
25%
Galatasaray win
38%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.6
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 83% as both sides generate near-identical expected goals around 1.6 apiece, creating a balanced attacking blueprint for this encounter."