FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Istanbul Basaksehir 4–0 GenclerbirligiMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Istanbul Basaksehir to win at 62%. Bawler had Istanbul Basaksehir at 62%, the draw at 21% and Genclerbirligi at 17%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Istanbul Basaksehir win
62%
Result
Draw
21%
Genclerbirligi win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.0
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Istanbul Basaksehir to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 40%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Istanbul Basaksehir's home win forecast rests on a commanding 1.20 xG advantage, reflecting their superior chance creation in a 2.14 to 0.94 expected-goals gap."