FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026

Italy 0–2 BelgiumMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 25 September 2026

Italy
0–2
Belgium win
Belgium

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Belgium to win at 62%. Bawler had Italy at 17%, the draw at 21% and Belgium at 62%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Italy win
17%
Draw
21%
Belgium win
62%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 2.2
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.7
From the match itself

The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Belgium to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Belgium's away win is the model's high-confidence call, backed by a 1.14 xG advantage and 62% win probability despite Italy's home status."

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