How it finished
Belgium beat Italy 2–0. Bawler's model had Belgium in front at 62% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals; only 2 were scored. Italy had 21 shots (6 on target) to Belgium's 19 (8), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 2.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Italy vs Belgium?
Belgium beat Italy 2–0. Bawler's model had Belgium in front at 62% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals; only 2 were scored. Italy had 21 shots (6 on target) to Belgium's 19 (8), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 2.7.
What was the final score in Italy vs Belgium?
Italy 0–2 Belgium, played on 25 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Italy 17%, the draw 21% and Belgium 62%.
What were the stats in Italy vs Belgium?
Full-time: Possession 56%–44%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–2.7, Shots 21–19, Shots on target 6–8, Shots inside box 14–11, Big chances 4–5, Corners 4–8, Saves 6–6, Fouls 12–11, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 2–4.
Did both teams score in Italy vs Belgium?
No. It finished 0–2, so Italy failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Italy vs Belgium right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Belgium to win 62%, it finished Belgium won (62% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished No.