FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Jablonec 1–0 RangersMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Jablonec or draw at 68%. Bawler had Jablonec at 43%, the draw at 25% and Rangers at 32%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Jablonec win
43%
Result
Draw
25%
Rangers win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 82% across a fixture where Jablonec's 1.70 xG edges Rangers' 1.44, projecting a low-scoring but open European tie."