FT · World: International Friendly · Monday, 28 September 2026

Japan 2–1 VenezuelaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 28 September 2026

Japan
2–1
Japan win
Venezuela

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Japan to win at 80%. Bawler had Japan at 80%, the draw at 14% and Venezuela at 6%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Japan win
80%
Result
Draw
14%
Venezuela win
6%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.7 – 0.6
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 1.4
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Japan to win
Pre-match: 80%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Japan's Home Win forecast rests on a dominant 2.04 expected-goals advantage, with creator Takumi Minamino controlling 22% of the hosts' attacking output against Venezuela's 0.63 xG."

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