FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Jordan 1–1 SyriaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Jordan
1–1
Draw
Syria

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Jordan or draw at 73%. Bawler had Jordan at 48%, the draw at 25% and Syria at 27%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Jordan win
48%
Draw
25%
Result
Syria win
27%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)

The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Jordan or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Jordan's attacking creators like Al-Taamari edge Syria's defence in expected-goal terms (1.69–1.24), making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 79% high-confidence call."

More from Bawler