FT · Belgium: Pro League · Thursday, 03 September 2026
KAA Gent 1–0 OH LeuvenMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was KAA Gent or draw at 78%. Bawler had KAA Gent at 55%, the draw at 24% and OH Leuven at 22%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
KAA Gent win
55%
Result
Draw
24%
OH Leuven win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.1
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Medium confidence
KAA Gent to win
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call here, with Gent's 0.77 expected-goals advantage suggesting they'll dominate the attacking half enough to push past a low-event total."