FT · Belgium: Pro League · Friday, 18 September 2026
KAA Gent 2–1 Standard LiegeMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 18 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was KAA Gent or draw at 74%. Bawler had KAA Gent at 49%, the draw at 25% and Standard Liege at 26%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
KAA Gent win
49%
Result
Draw
25%
Standard Liege win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
KAA Gent or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals ranks as the model's high-confidence call at 79%, with Gent's 0.52 xG advantage and stronger win probability (49% vs. 26%) positioning the hosts to control play and generate multiple scoring chances."