FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Kazakhstan 2–2 Faroe IslandsMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Faroe Islands or draw at 71%. Bawler had Kazakhstan at 29%, the draw at 29% and Faroe Islands at 41%. The match finished 2–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Kazakhstan win
29%
Draw
29%
Result
Faroe Islands win
41%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.0 – 1.3
Total 2.3
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Faroe Islands or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 21%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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