FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Kocaelispor 2–0 Gaziantep FKMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Kocaelispor or draw at 74%. Bawler had Kocaelispor at 46%, the draw at 29% and Gaziantep FK at 26%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Kocaelispor win
46%
Result
Draw
29%
Gaziantep FK win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.0
Total 2.4
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.4 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Kocaelispor or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Kocaelispor's 0.33 expected-goals edge and 44% win probability make the Kocaelispor or draw forecast (72% confidence) the model's pick, as the hosts project sharper finishing in a low-scoring contest."