FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026

KuPS Kuopio 1–0 Shamrock RoversMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026

KuPS Kuopio
1–0
KuPS Kuopio win
Shamrock Rovers

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was KuPS Kuopio or draw at 73%. Bawler had KuPS Kuopio at 47%, the draw at 26% and Shamrock Rovers at 27%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

KuPS Kuopio win
47%
Result
Draw
26%
Shamrock Rovers win
27%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
KuPS Kuopio or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals dominates this fixture because KuPS Kuopio's 1.59 expected goals and 20-shot advantage in creation edge give them enough attacking thrust to break through despite Shamrock Rovers' modest 1.16 xG."

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