FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 20 September 2026

KV Kortrijk 1–0 Waasland-BeverenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026

KV Kortrijk
1–0
KV Kortrijk win
Waasland-Beveren

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Waasland-Beveren or draw at 65%. Bawler had KV Kortrijk at 35%, the draw at 27% and Waasland-Beveren at 39%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

KV Kortrijk win
35%
Result
Draw
27%
Waasland-Beveren win
39%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% because both sides generate comparable attacking threat—Kortrijk 1.42 xG and Beveren 1.30 xG—leaving little defensive margin in a fixture with tight win probabilities across all outcomes."

More from Bawler