FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Kyrgyz Republic 3–1 LebanonMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Kyrgyz Republic
3–1
Kyrgyz Republic win
Lebanon

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Lebanon or draw at 70%. Bawler had Kyrgyz Republic at 30%, the draw at 27% and Lebanon at 43%. The match finished 3–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Kyrgyz Republic win
30%
Result
Draw
27%
Lebanon win
43%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.2 – 1.5
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 76% because both sides combine for 2.75 expected goals despite Lebanon's narrow 13-point win-probability edge, signaling attacking intent outweighs defensive solidity."

More from Bawler