How it finished
Kyrgyz Republic beat Lebanon 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Lebanon at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Kyrgyz Republic 30%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Kyrgyz Republic vs Lebanon?
Kyrgyz Republic beat Lebanon 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Lebanon at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Kyrgyz Republic 30%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4.
What was the final score in Kyrgyz Republic vs Lebanon?
Kyrgyz Republic 3–1 Lebanon, played on 04 Oct 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Kyrgyz Republic 30%, the draw 27% and Lebanon 43%.
Did both teams score in Kyrgyz Republic vs Lebanon?
Yes — both Kyrgyz Republic and Lebanon scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Kyrgyz Republic vs Lebanon right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lebanon or draw 70%, it finished Kyrgyz Republic won (30% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.