FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Kyrgyz Republic 5–0 MaldivesMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Kyrgyz Republic
5–0
Kyrgyz Republic win
Maldives

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Kyrgyz Republic or draw at 81%. Bawler had Kyrgyz Republic at 58%, the draw at 23% and Maldives at 19%. The match finished 5–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Kyrgyz Republic win
58%
Result
Draw
23%
Maldives win
19%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 1.1
Total 3.0
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Kyrgyz Republic or draw
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 81%, built on Kyrgyz Republic's 0.91 xG advantage and dominant 58% win probability at home against a visiting side projected for just 1.07 expected goals."

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