FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
LA Galaxy 1–1 Seattle Sounders FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Seattle Sounders FC or draw at 64%. Bawler had LA Galaxy at 36%, the draw at 25% and Seattle Sounders FC at 39%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
LA Galaxy win
36%
Draw
25%
Result
Seattle Sounders FC win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% because both sides generate nearly identical threat—LA Galaxy's 1.50 xG led by creator Riqui Puig and Seattle's 1.56 xG through winger Jordan Morris—leaving the fixture wide open for multiple goals."