FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
LAFC 2–0 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was LAFC to win at 65%. Bawler had LAFC at 65%, the draw at 20% and Red Bull New York at 16%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
LAFC win
65%
Result
Draw
20%
Red Bull New York win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.1
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.4 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
LAFC to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"LAFC's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.24 expected-goals advantage, with the model projecting 2.31 xG compared to Red Bull New York's 1.07."