Bawler / USA: MLS / New York Red Bulls
Team profile

New York Red Bulls Prediction

Per-game numbers from 45 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.0
a game
12.1 faced
On target
4.2
a game
4.7 faced
Goals
1.5 – 1.6
scored – conceded
a game, 45 matches
Next match
37%
New York Red Bulls win chance
vs Nashville · Wed 19 Aug 23:30

New York Red Bulls prediction: for New York Red Bulls's next match — New York Red Bulls vs Nashville on Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a New York Red Bulls win looks most likely (37%).

New York Red Bulls sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.68 expected goals a game and conceding 1.58. Next up is Nashville SC, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 37%.

New York Red Bulls in numbers

45 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.6
Home 2.0Away 0.9
4.4
Corners · per game
give up 4.2
Home 4.6Away 4.2
12.0
Shots · per game
faced 12.1
Home 13.6Away 10.2
4.2
On target · per game
faced 4.7
Home 5.1Away 3.2
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-2
@ Atlanta Utd
7-3
01 Aug
3-2
vs Orlando City
5-4
25 Jul
0-2
vs Charlotte
6-1
22 Jul
1-3
@ Philadelphia Union
6-8
24 May
2-1
@ Sporting Kansas City
1-6
16 May
1-1
vs New York City
9-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Nashville · Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
37%
This team
Draw
29%
Loss
34%
Nashville
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How New York Red Bulls compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.68
Above average
Goals against
1.58
Leakier than most
Record
5W 1D 5L
11 settled
Real goals
1.7 – 2.2
For / against, per match
Scored1.68
Conceded1.58

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.68 xG per match · +0.20 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on New York Red Bulls fixtures (8/8).
Tough market: Result
New York Red Bulls matches give the model a harder read here — 1/3 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

How Bawler has done on New York Red Bulls

82%
of high-confidence calls correct — 9 of 11, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%8/8
Result33%1/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Augvs Chicago Fire FC

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Aug@ Atlanta United FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Augvs Orlando City SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 25 Julvs Charlotte FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Jul@ Philadelphia Union
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 May@ Sporting Kansas City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs New York City FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 14 Mayvs Columbus Crew
High confidence: X2
Sat 09 May@ Chicago Fire FC
High confidence: 1X
Sun 03 Mayvs FC Dallas
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 05 Aprvs FC Cincinnati
High confidence: 1X

More on New York Red Bulls and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly