FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Larne 0–3 Lincoln Red ImpsMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Larne or draw at 64%. Bawler had Larne at 36%, the draw at 28% and Lincoln Red Imps at 36%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Larne win
36%
Draw
28%
Lincoln Red Imps win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 73% confidence because both sides project identical expected goals of 1.30, setting up a perfectly balanced attacking fixture that historically produces multi-goal outcomes."