FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026

Latvia 0–0 CyprusMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 28 September 2026

Latvia
0–0
Draw
Cyprus

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Cyprus or draw at 68%. Bawler had Latvia at 32%, the draw at 25% and Cyprus at 43%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Latvia win
32%
Draw
25%
Result
Cyprus win
43%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.7
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.1
From the match itself

The match produced 3.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals carries 83% forecast confidence, as Latvia and Cyprus combine for 3.17 expected goals with Cyprus holding just a 0.18 xG edge in an evenly matched encounter."

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