Latvia vs Cyprus prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 28 Sept · 17:00 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 28 Sept · 17:00 UK
Latvia 32Draw 25Cyprus 43
Our call before kickoff
68%
Cyprus or draw
Landed
3.1
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
75%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
62%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
61%

How it finished

Latvia and Cyprus drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Cyprus at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.1 goals; nobody scored. Latvia had 8 shots (0 on target) to Cyprus' 18 (5), with 33% of the ball against 67%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 1.1.

LatviaFull-time statsCyprus
33%Possession67%
0.8Expected goals (xG)1.1
8Shots18
0Shots on target5
6Shots inside box11
0Big chances2
4Corners11
5Saves0
16Fouls12
0Offsides1
2Yellow cards4
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callCyprus or draw 68%Draw (25% called)
Total goals3.10
Both teams to score62%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 82%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

LatviaCyprus
1.4
Goals+0.3
1.7
LatviaCyprus
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.5
LatviaCyprus
1.0
Goals+0.2
1.2

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Over 1.5 goals82%
Cyprus to score82%
Latvia to score76%
Under 3.5 goals62%

First half — what we expected

Latvia
47%
to score before half-time
Cyprus
53%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)-0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 1Latvia 0 · Draws 1 · Cyprus 0

Head to head

Mar 2024Cyprus 1–1 Latvia
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Latvia vs Cyprus?

Latvia and Cyprus drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Cyprus at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.1 goals; nobody scored. Latvia had 8 shots (0 on target) to Cyprus' 18 (5), with 33% of the ball against 67%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 1.1.

What was the final score in Latvia vs Cyprus?

Latvia 0–0 Cyprus, played on 28 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Latvia 32%, the draw 25% and Cyprus 43%.

What were the stats in Latvia vs Cyprus?

Full-time: Possession 33%–67%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–1.1, Shots 8–18, Shots on target 0–5, Shots inside box 6–11, Big chances 0–2, Corners 4–11, Saves 5–0, Fouls 16–12, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 2–4.

Did both teams score in Latvia vs Cyprus?

No. It finished 0–0, so Latvia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 62% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Latvia vs Cyprus right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Cyprus or draw 68%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 62%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Latvia form →Cyprus form →