FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Le Havre AC 0–0 AngersMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Le Havre AC or draw at 75%. Bawler had Le Havre AC at 48%, the draw at 27% and Angers at 25%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Le Havre AC win
48%
Draw
27%
Result
Angers win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.0
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Le Havre AC or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Le Havre's 0.48 expected-goals advantage and 48% win probability make Le Havre AC or draw the model's high-confidence call at 75%, reflecting the hosts' superior chance creation despite both sides' modest attacking output."