FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Le Havre AC 1–2 BrestMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Le Havre AC or draw at 66%. Bawler had Le Havre AC at 39%, the draw at 27% and Brest at 34%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Le Havre AC win
39%
Draw
27%
Brest win
34%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Le Havre's home advantage edges a tight xG race (1.41 vs 1.29), making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 75%-confidence call in a fixture projected for 2.69 total shots on target."