FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Le Mans 2–2 LensMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lens to win at 60%. Bawler had Le Mans at 18%, the draw at 22% and Lens at 60%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Le Mans win
18%
Draw
22%
Result
Lens win
60%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 2.1
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lens or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lens's Away Win dominates the forecast at 60% probability, built on a decisive 1.02 expected-goals edge that mirrors their superior attacking threat led by striker Florian Sotoca."