FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Lecce 3–2 MonzaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Monza or draw at 69%. Bawler had Lecce at 31%, the draw at 29% and Monza at 40%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lecce win
31%
Result
Draw
29%
Monza win
40%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.3
Total 2.4
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Monza or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Monza's superior shot-creation edge (1.31 xG vs 1.14) underpins the Monza or draw forecast, which the model rates at 69% probability despite Lecce's home venue."