FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Levante 2–4 BarcelonaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Barcelona or draw at 77%. Bawler had Levante at 23%, the draw at 23% and Barcelona at 55%. The match finished 2–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Levante win
23%
Draw
23%
Barcelona win
55%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 2.0
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Barcelona to win
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 84% because Barcelona's 2.04 xG and Levante's 1.26 xG (0.78-goal gap) points to a match where Lamine Yamal and Robert Lewandowski should find space in a naturally open fixture."