FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Levski Sofia 0–1 RB SalzburgMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was RB Salzburg or draw at 66%. Bawler had Levski Sofia at 34%, the draw at 25% and RB Salzburg at 41%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Levski Sofia win
34%
Draw
25%
RB Salzburg win
41%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 82% because combined expected goals of 3.11 and a narrow 0.17 xG gap suggest both sides will create genuine chances in Sofia."