FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Liechtenstein 0–2 LithuaniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Liechtenstein
0–2
Lithuania win
Lithuania

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Lithuania to win at 65%. Bawler had Liechtenstein at 16%, the draw at 19% and Lithuania at 65%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Liechtenstein win
16%
Draw
19%
Lithuania win
65%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 2.4
Total 3.5
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.1 – 1.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Lithuania to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Lithuania's away win forecast rests on a decisive 1.28 xG advantage, reflecting sharper attacking threat that the 65% win probability underscores."

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