FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Lille 2–3 Real BetisMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lille or draw at 74%. Bawler had Lille at 48%, the draw at 26% and Real Betis at 26%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lille win
48%
Draw
26%
Real Betis win
26%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lille or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lille's Lille or draw forecast hits 74% because their 0.47 xG advantage and striker Jonathan David's creation of 28% of team chances give them the edge to avoid defeat at home against a Real Betis side generating just 1.17 expected goals."