FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Lille 2–0 TroyesMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lille to win at 64%. Bawler had Lille at 64%, the draw at 22% and Troyes at 15%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lille win
64%
Result
Draw
22%
Troyes win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lille to win
Pre-match: 64%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lille's home win is the high-confidence call at 64% probability, built on a dominant 1.16 xG advantage and Jonathan David's striker role commanding 28% of team chances."