FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Lillestrom 2–1 EgnatiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lillestrom or draw at 72%. Bawler had Lillestrom at 49%, the draw at 24% and Egnatia at 28%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lillestrom win
49%
Result
Draw
24%
Egnatia win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.4
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Lillestrom or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lillestrom's 0.50 expected-goals advantage and Jonathan David's 28% of team creation power underpins the model's 84% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals in this Europa League qualifier."