FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Lillestrom 1–2 TorreenseMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Torreense or draw at 77%. Bawler had Lillestrom at 23%, the draw at 25% and Torreense at 52%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lillestrom win
23%
Draw
25%
Torreense win
52%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.8
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Torreense or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Torreense's 0.64 expected-goals advantage and 52% win probability make Torreense or draw the model's high-confidence call, with Jonathan David's creative load insufficient to overcome the away side's attacking edge."