Europe: Europa League - QualificationThursday 06 Aug, 17:00 UTC

Lincoln Red Imps vOmonia Nicosia

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.95 goals expected
Lincoln Red Imps 33%Draw 30%Omonia Nicosia 37%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
77%

Under 2.5 Goals dominates at 73% probability because Omonia's 0.46 xG advantage still leaves both sides below a combined 1.92 expected goals—a historically low-scoring blueprint.

How we get there
Lincoln Red ImpsstepOmonia Nicosia
1.26Base xG · rolling 26-match1.62
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.43Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.52
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Lincoln Red Imps average 4.0 corners per game at home this season (4 competitive matches). Omonia Nicosia average 4.4 corners per game away from home this season (5 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
8
6
3
1
1
7
11
9
4
2
1
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
1
4
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Lincoln Red Imps vs Omonia Nicosia — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Lincoln Red Imps and Omonia Nicosia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Lincoln Red Imps 33% · draw 30% · Omonia Nicosia 37%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Lincoln Red Imps 11 Omonia Nicosia
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.