FT · Belgium: Pro League · Friday, 04 September 2026
Lommel SK 0–1 Club BruggeMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Club Brugge to win at 62%. Bawler had Lommel SK at 17%, the draw at 22% and Club Brugge at 62%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lommel SK win
17%
Draw
22%
Club Brugge win
62%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 2.1
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Club Brugge to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Club Brugge's away win is the high-confidence call, backed by a 1.09 expected-goals advantage and a 62% forecast win probability that reflects their attacking edge."