FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Luxembourg 0–3 IcelandMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Luxembourg
0–3
Iceland win
Iceland

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Iceland or draw at 69%. Bawler had Luxembourg at 31%, the draw at 27% and Iceland at 42%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Luxembourg win
31%
Draw
27%
Iceland win
42%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.2 – 1.5
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 2.4
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% likelihood, as Iceland's 1.44 xG advantage and Luxembourg's modest 1.26 xG combine to forecast 2.70 total expected goals in a tactically open contest."

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