How it finished
Iceland beat Luxembourg 3–0. Bawler's model had Iceland in front at 42% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Luxembourg had 5 shots (1 on target) to Iceland's 13 (4), with 60% of the ball against 40%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 2.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Luxembourg vs Iceland?
Iceland beat Luxembourg 3–0. Bawler's model had Iceland in front at 42% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Luxembourg had 5 shots (1 on target) to Iceland's 13 (4), with 60% of the ball against 40%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 2.4.
What was the final score in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland, played on 29 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Luxembourg 31%, the draw 27% and Iceland 42%.
What were the stats in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
Full-time: Possession 60%–40%, Expected goals (xG) 0.2–2.4, Shots 5–13, Shots on target 1–4, Shots inside box 4–10, Big chances 0–3, Corners 2–2, Saves 1–1, Fouls 11–13, Offsides 2–4, Yellow cards 2–4.
Did both teams score in Luxembourg vs Iceland?
No. It finished 0–3, so Luxembourg failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Luxembourg vs Iceland right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Iceland or draw 69%, it finished Iceland won (42% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 50%, it finished Landed.